Corona Pandemic: Future Considerations Based on Epidemiological Modelling Results

Since the emergence of the corona pandemic, there has been a worldwide question regarding when the pandemic would come to an end. In the meantime, such hopes are increasingly being supplanted by concerns that this infectious disease cannot be eliminated and will become endemic.

This recently published article* by PD Dr. rer. nat. Hans-Peter Dürr of Numerus and Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin Eichner of Tübingen University describes two reasons which support this hypothesis: seasonal transmission and temporary immunity. Both factors strongly influence the transmission dynamics. This will shape political decisions and our future management of SARS-CoV-2 control.

Based on a mathematical model, this article provides predictions on the future endemicity of SARS-CoV-2 and its implications for vaccination campaigns, social distancing and other intervention measures, as well as for the debate about the introduction of compulsory vaccination in Germany and other countries.

Full Text - Deutsch, or English (translation)

*In the February issue of Monitor Versorgungsforschung www.m-vf.de